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Wildfires could affect NV housing market, UNLV expert says

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Wednesday, January 15, 2025   

People are increasingly moving into the wildland-urban interface areas, where human development meets wild vegetation, like forests, according to a University of Nevada-Las Vegas expert.

Such landscapes are also notorious for wildfires.

Nicholas Irwin, associate professor of economics at the university, said it is the fastest-growing land use type in the West, which has helped to almost double the number of housing units since 1990.

How do the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles County fit into the picture? Irwin said while wildfires temporarily reduce development, they do not stop it entirely.

"As people start to rebuild, it is going to sort of recede into the background," Irwin pointed out. "The wildfire risk, the risk of building in these areas; people are going to be less concerned about it, which is partly founded in science because after the fires are extinguished and everything, the Pacific Palisades area will not re-catch fire for some time because the fuel load is no longer there."

Irwin and fellow researchers have found if fire hits an area, there is a lull in development for about five years. He argued while insurance companies do a good job thinking about the risks associated with some natural disasters, wildfires are not among them. He stated as a whole, the country is in an "infancy stage" when it comes to modeling wildfire risk, which he wants to see change.

Irwin pointed out in any given year, about 70% to 80% of new residents of Southern Nevada are coming from Southern California. He contended the latest wildfires may lead even more people to relocate and consider setting roots somewhere else.

"Las Vegas is really close and I can see a lot of folks moving here, at least temporarily, which is going to put a lot of pressure on our rental market," Irwin projected. "I could even see some folks moving here for a few years as they start the rebuilding process. We're not just talking about people losing their houses, we're talking about people losing their jobs potentially, their kids losing their schools, and I could see them wanting just sort of to reset."

Irwin emphasized he and others will continue to track the data. He added research shows the median individual who moves from out of state is about 15% wealthier than an in-state Nevada resident, which means they are better able to compete in the housing market.


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